The coming year is going to be a very different one for immigration to Canada, in a number of different ways.
Officially, the federal government has cut back on targets for new permanent residents sharply, from 485,000 to 395,000, and from 500,000 planned in 2026 to 380,000. Meanwhile, Ottawa is also reining in the number of temporary foreign workers and foreign students entering the country.
Ottawa is now actually expecting the population to decline slightly over the next two years 鈥� something that has not happened in living memory 鈥� as students and temporary workers leave and are not replaced.
As if that wasn鈥檛 enough change to absorb, we鈥檙e now in something of an undeclared cold war with the government of India, after their senior diplomats here were accused of being complicit in attacks on Canadians, including the murder of a B.C. Sikh activist.
India until recently was Canada鈥檚 biggest source of newcomers, with 27 per cent of new permanent residents, 22 per cent of temporary workers, and a full 45 per cent of international students from there in 2022.
With these tensions, both temporary and permanent travel may be impacted.
Finally, there鈥檚 the election of Donald Trump as president for another term south of the U.S. border.
In the short term, Trump鈥檚 plans to begin mass expulsions of undocumented immigrants 鈥� thought to total between 10 and 12 million people in the U.S. 鈥� may result in some of them seeking to cross the border into Canada.
Are we prepared for that? Is our government in any way ready to process and house an unknown number of people 鈥� hundreds, thousands, maybe more 鈥� coming across the border? Can we do it humanely and safely? Will some be eligible for refugee status? How much will it cost? What will it mean for our relationship with the U.S.?
The federal government鈥檚 changes on the immigration file were prompted by public frustration and the real problems of our ongoing housing and health care crises. We don鈥檛 know if cutting immigration now will actually fix anything. We don鈥檛 know what effect policies south of the border will have.
We鈥檙e facing a lot of unknowns. It would be nice if our federal leaders indicated they at least were thinking about their next moves.
鈥� M.C.
